应用柯洛波夫数论网格计算发射n发至少命中m发概率的研究

本文应用了柯洛波夫数论网格方法,较好地解决了三级误差条件下高精度计算命中概率指标 P_(Lm)的问题。本文还详细给出了计算 P_(Lm)的方法、步骤和实例。     

决策系统的信息机理

本文从信息与决策的角度,分析了决策系统信息特性的几个侧面,为研究信息对决策系统的作用机理做了一些基础性的定量工作。     

Bayes 试验分析中验前分布的表示

结合武器系统试验鉴定中的问题，研究Ｂａｙｅｓ方法运用中的验前信息表示问题。文中运用自助（Ｂｏｏｔｓｔｒａｐ）方法和随机加权法确定验前分布。对于多种信息源之下的验前信息，给出了验前分布的融合估计。对当前工程实践中常用的方法及存在的问题，提出了看法和处置方法。     

舰炮目标毁伤判定与毁伤效果仿真研究

舰炮对目标毁伤的判定与毁伤效果仿真是舰载作战系统仿真训练的重要组成部分,作为连接舰炮射击与目标毁伤的中间环节,它实现了对目标毁伤状态的判定,以及目标毁伤效果的仿真反馈,从而仿真训练系统中其他仿真成员,以及各型侦察模拟设备可以发现并判定目标毁伤状态,为作战指挥人员进行作战指挥决策提供目标毁伤信息,为参训职手提供更为实战化的仿真训练环境。在简述舰载作战系统仿真训练系统的基础上,重点探讨了基于毁伤概率表和弹目交会的舰炮毁伤判定方法,并简述了目标毁伤效果仿真方法。     

Nonperiodic preventive maintenance for repairable systems

As a complex system with multiple components usually deteriorates with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to keep the system functioning in a good state to prolong its effective age. In this study, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deterioration of a repairable system, and the optimal nonperiodic PM schedule can be determined to minimize the expected total cost per unit time. However, since the determination of such optimal PM policies may involve numerous uncertainties, which typically make the analyses difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data, a Bayesian decision model, which utilizes all available information effectively, is also proposed for determining the optimal PM strategies. A numerical example with a real failure data set is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results show that the optimal schedules derived by Bayesian approach are relatively more conservative than that for non‐Bayesian approach because of the uncertainty of the intensity function, and if the intensity function are updated using the collected data set, which indicates more severe deterioration than the prior belief, replacing the entire system instead of frequent PM activities before serious deterioration is suggested. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

优化舰炮对海效力射方式的非线性规划方法

探讨了运用非线性规划方法解决舰炮对海上目标进行效力射时的射击方式的选择问题,从符合实际情况的合理假设出发,在此基础上给出一种在服从或近似服从指数毁伤定律条件下的非线性规划模型,计算结果可为选择效力射方式提供参考。     

Dynamic server assignment policies for assembly‐type queues with flexible servers

We seek dynamic server assignment policies in finite‐capacity queueing systems with flexible and collaborative servers, which involve an assembly and/or a disassembly operation. The objective is to maximize the steady‐state throughput. We completely characterize the optimal policy for a Markovian system with two servers, two feeder stations, and instantaneous assembly and disassembly operations. This optimal policy allocates one server per station unless one of the stations is blocked, in which case both servers work at the unblocked station. For Markovian systems with three stations and instantaneous assembly and/or disassembly operations, we consider similar policies that move a server away from his/her “primary” station only when that station is blocked or starving. We determine the optimal assignment of each server whose primary station is blocked or starving in systems with three stations and zero buffers, by formulating the problem as a Markov decision process. Using this optimal assignment, we develop heuristic policies for systems with three or more stations and positive buffers, and show by means of a numerical study that these policies provide near‐optimal throughput. Furthermore, our numerical study shows that these policies developed for assembly‐type systems also work well in tandem systems. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

离散动态贝叶斯网络的递推算法

离散动态贝叶斯网络是对动态系统进行建模和定性推理的有力工具。由于观测证据会随时间增加,直接计算推理算法的公式会变得冗长而且推理速度还会下降。在直接计算推理算法的基础上推导出递推公式,并给出算例验证。递推计算公式简洁,仿真表明递推算法的推理速度较直接计算推理算法有明显提高,因而适合实时在线推理。最后将递推算法应用于航天器的态势感知。     

高炮火控系统模拟训练及综合评价系统

提出了一种新型的基于计算机及计算技术的高炮火控系统仿真模拟训练及综合评价系统的设计方案。这一方案不仅注重了系统实现仿真训练的基本功能,同时还利用计算机仿真优势,强调了对训练效果的评估及对训练模式的总结。提出了实时决策支持的新概念     

地炮营通信系统载波监听／碰撞检测仿真分析

给出某地炮营通信系统信息传输的CSMA／CD(Carrier Sense Multiple Acces／Collision Detection)排队论模型,提出了信道争用和碰撞的问题,用单机和网络仿真分析了载波监听条件下通信失效的概率,给出信道争用和碰撞的几个性能指标,并利用软件的方法,提供了减少碰撞的方案